ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measurement utilizes the international extreme poverty line of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this threshold increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP regional grouping.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively account for another 47% of MENAAP’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations represent roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP accounts for about 14% of the world’s extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the only one where poverty remains above pre-pandemic levels and continues to grow, according to the World Bank.
Pakistan also experienced a worsening situation at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income countries. The percentage of people below that threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25, with the World Bank estimating the rate at around 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty pressures intensify amid successive shocks
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding approximately 21 million people to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank stated that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has improved from recent lows, poverty indicators continue to be high. The October regional update projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% for fiscal 2026-27. It further estimates real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, with inflation forecasted at 7.1% in 2026 and rising to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences the headline statistic
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current MENAAP classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to that change, the World Bank categorized both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government stated that this change was purely administrative and statistical, and did not modify the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revised grouping altered regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October update also indicated a weaker regional economy in 2026, projecting a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, with conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade hampering economic activity. Developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, showed relative resilience in the regional outlook. The update predicts a growth rate of 4.3% for that group in 2026, although rising food and energy costs continue to pressure household purchasing power across multiple economies.